An Analysis Flawed

The post is also found in a Finnish translation made by James Mashiri on his blog Somesotilas.

Finnish daily Iltalehti published an analysis regarding the Squadron 2020-program, and like most analyses, if your baseline data is incorrect, your conclusion is likely to go wrong. This is what happened here as well.

The analysis is a hodgepodge of correct information leading to false conclusions, unrelated anecdotes, strange non sequiturs, and plain wrong information, all being presented in a package that is more akin to an opinion piece directed against the Navy and the leadership of the Defence Forces. While any major shipbuilding program for the Navy will lead to a number of more or less ill-informed pieces on the “but Panssarilaivat“-subject, this is a particularly poor example of the genre. Some of the most glaring errors:

  • Claiming that the Finnish steel-hulled corvette would be related to the US aluminium-hulled patrol vessels of the LCS-program
  • That this relation would cause any issues the LCS has to carry over to the corvettes
  • That stationing Bastion anti-ship missiles in Kaliningrad(!) would make the Finnish ships “easy targets”
  • Claiming that the A2/AD-bubble in Kaliningrad creates an impenetrable “steel dome” (see earlier post)
  • That recent developments in radar technology (“spotting seagulls at long ranges”) is a disruptive event that makes stealthy warships useless
  • That the vessels would be “effortlessly” distinguishable against the horizon
  • That the Finnish coastal defence ships ate the whole defence budget prior to WWII, and was the reason the Army had to go to war under-equipped (see earlier post)
  • That the ships are big to be able to cope with deployments on the high seas during international missions (see earlier post)
  • Claiming that the Navy wants to lay mines on the high seas (certainly not the case, see page 15)
  • That it is impossible to judge the effectiveness of the vessel before launch, due to expected teething troubles (this is an insult to all engineers in the marine industry)
  • That corvettes, sporting a heavy battery of surface-to-air missiles, would need more air cover from the Air Force’s fighters than the current fast attack crafts, or the host of other high-priority targets being found in the southern parts of country (see earlier post)
  • The article brings up Patria’s recent concept of a containerised version of the NEMO-mortar system, apparently in an attempt to show that missiles can be land-based, overlooking the fact that there actually are truck-based system in service in the Finnish Defence Forces (as opposed to containerised mortars), and that these and the warships are seen as supporting and not replacing each other (see earlier post)
  • That the whole of the Baltic Sea could be closed by Russian missiles bringing down the Øresund Bridge (not the case, the amount of rubble would be relatively minor relative to water depth and easily cleared)
  • The deal would likely overheat the Finnish shipyard industry and hurt the competitiveness of the Turku yard (utter rubbish, the closure of the Rauma yard cost 600 persons their job, with the re-started RMC having created around 450 jobs, and crucially within a short enough time-span that retraining hasn’t been a major factor)
  • That the NATO-countries bordering the Baltic Sea sports a vastly larger fleet than the Russian Baltic Fleet (see earlier post), making the Finnish ships redundant, somehow forgetting that we’re not a NATO-member (and that the inlet to the Baltic Sea was supposed to have been cut)
  • That the new Finnish Katanpää-class mine countermeasure vessels are failures (see earlier post) and lack any meaningful role in a future war (see earlier post)

The final conclusion is that the Navy doesn’t need the new corvettes, which are useless, and now we must hope that the politicians overrule the admirals to force a time-out and re-evaluation of the future needs of the Navy. As is evident from the links above, the arguments he bases this assertion on are either false, misunderstood, or completely irrelevant for Squadron 2020. Most have been addressed on the blog before, but a few deserve a closer review.

The LCS – an unrelated vessel for an unrelated mission

The text makes a big deal about the fact that the Squadron 2020 is based on the US Littoral Combat Ship, and the issues faced by that project.

The major issue here, is the fact that the notion that the two projects would be in any way related is completely false. The secondary issue is that the article completely overlooks the planned role for the LCS.

The LCS came about largely as a result of the withdrawal of the Oliver Hazard Perry-class frigates. These were the smallest ocean-going combat vessels of the US Navy, and this lead to an increased demand for the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers. It was quickly recognised that for a number of the missions these high-tech destroyers were overkill, and a smaller (i.e. cheaper) solution had to be found for flag-waving and patrol missions where asymmetric threats was the main thing to worry about. The problem for the LCS, and especially for the Freedom-class, is that they look like full-blown corvettes or light frigates, but are in fact large patrol ships (‘PS’, according to the USNI Ship Designation System). This means that they are not to be seen as one-for-one replacements for the earlier frigates, but to take over some low-end missions from larger surface vessels at a low(ish) cost. However, they have received a far share of critique for being lightly armed and having less ability to withstand combat when compared to the 1970’s OPH-frigate. This has in turn lead to demands for increasing the weapons load and resilience of the ships’ systems, to make them true corvettes/light frigates. An upgraded ‘LCS-frigate’ is also offered for export, and Saudi Arabia has expressed interest in this design.

Army 25th Combat Aviation Brigade earns deck landing qualifications abaord Littoral Combat Ship USS Fort Worth (LCS-3)
USS Fort Worht (LCS-3), looking too much like a proper warship for its own good. Source: Wikimedia Commons/U.S. Navy/MCS 2nd Class Antonio P. Turretto Ramos

Long story short: that the new US patrol vessel isn’t as damage resistant as combat vessels doesn’t have anything to do with the new Finnish corvette.

Anti-shipping missiles in Kaliningrad – Come again?

The article claims that the new Finnish vessels will be sunk as soon as they appear at sea, because the Russians have created their A2/AD-fortress around Kaliningrad, including basing the K-300P Bastion-P in the exclave.

I do not understand the leap Ainola does here. The Bastion can’t reach anywhere near Finnish waters from Kaliningrad, so despite the fact that it is a matter of serious concern for the Poles and Lithuanians, and to a lesser extent the rest of the Baltic states and Germany, it doesn’t affect Finland directly. In other places, he sternly states that the southern parts of the Baltic Sea is none of Finland’s concern, but the tactical picture there apparently is? Especially out of place is the mention of Kaliningrad, as fired from Russian territory bordering the Gulf of Finland, the system covers roughly all Finnish waters east of Hanko.

As mentioned earlier, the Bastion is a potent weapon, but far from a ‘silver bullet’. It still needs targeting data, and the high speed is something of a mixed blessing, as it creates lots of heat for passive shipborne sensors to pick up and presumably also has an adverse effect on the final stages of target acquisition and interception.

Radars, seagulls, and jamming

Radar technology has made huge progress in recent years, but in all fairness, it isn’t a question about finding a seagull at range. To begin with, radar-cross sections can be widely detached from the area and volume of an object (ask the B-2 Spirit). In addition, there is the major issue with how to discern the relevant radar returns (i.e. ships) from irrelevant ones (i.e. seagulls). This isn’t anything new, and modern radars are very good at processing the myriad of returns. However, in the same way, modern countermeasures are very good at hiding these relevant returns. It is a continuous game of hide-and-seek, and while details are classified, it is safe to say that any kind of disruptive leap has not happened. Especially when you throw in the Finnish archipelago.

giraffe_afb-radar
An example of a seagull-spotting radar, the Giraffe AMB. Source: Wikimedia Commons/Duch.Seb

The alternative

What would the alternative then be to the four corvettes? It is safe to say that this has probably been looked into by the Navy, and as mentioned I have discussed the question in my earlier post on why the increase in hull size is needed, but a short recap is in place.

One issue that is often glossed over is how radically the threat picture changed for the Finnish Navy with the end of the Cold War. The Navy has two ‘hard’ main missions in case of war: protecting Finnish shipping lanes and covering the southern flank. During the Cold War, any Soviet flotilla could rapidly depart the Estonian coast, and in a matter of hours have crossed the narrow Gulf of Finland to launch an amphibious assault to threaten major Finnish cities and installations, including the capital. With Estonia re-establishing its independence, this threat has decreased radically. The 336th Naval Infantry Brigade which is the main striking force of the Baltic Fleet is also based in Kaliningrad and not Kronstadt. However, while the threat of amphibious assaults have diminished, the threat to shipping has increased. This is due to the increased dependence on imports following the general trend of globalisation in society as a whole, and for the defence forces in particular. Also, the striking power of submarines and especially aircrafts have increased. This threat requires more than a number of shore-based missile launchers. It require constant presence, and a readiness to counter surface, sub-surface, and airborne threats.

Would it be possible to meet this without corvettes?

Certainly.

Would it be cheaper, and more efficient?

Probably not.

Finland could continue down the current road, featuring smaller, basically single-role warships. But getting four hulls (3D-capability and a mineship) for every corvette would not be cheaper, and would certainly lack the tactical flexibility offered by the corvettes.

Would it be possible to replace some of the roles with other systems?

It might be. Shore-based missile batteries can take over part of the air- and anti-shipping tasks, though these would lack some of the operational flexibility provided by the highly movable corvettes. The sub-hunting role is harder, with helicopters being the obvious choice. However, helicopters have their limits. They are excellent at locating and attacking a target when its presence and general area has been determined, usually by a shipborne system, but are poor tools when it comes to escorting ships, due to their relatively short endurance. One alternative would be to follow the Norwegian example, and buy a squadron of maritime patrol aircraft. 5 Boeing P-8A Poseidon for the RoNAF came in at around 1.1 billion Euro, so getting a meaningful number wouldn’t be cheap. Operating costs are hard to compare between aircrafts and corvettes, but it is safe to say getting the infrastructure (and mountain of sonobuoys needed) would effectively burn through any ‘excess’ money saved by scrapping the corvettes. A smaller aircraft might do, but it’s hard to see that this would cause any savings given the increased demand for shore-based missile systems that would follow this approach. And seriously, if you are concerned about the survivability of a corvette in the Baltic Sea, a converted airliner probably won’t fare better…

boeing_p-8a_poseidon_168763_282643680970229
Boeing P-8 Poseidon, ranking ‘High’ on the Coolness-scale and ‘Low’ on the Bang-for-buck-in-Baltic-Sea-scale. Source: Wikimedia Commons/Trevor Hannant

While it is no secret that I have voiced opinions about how the Navy, especially at the start of the program, handled its public relations and how the project was marketed to the broader public, there is really no excuse for an experienced journalist to produce an analysis so basically flawed as has been the case here. I am confident the Navy will rise to the challenge, and provide the information needed for our politicians to make the right choice and approve the crucial program that is Squadron 2020. If anything, Finland need more, not less, corvettes than planned.

James Mashiri also made an excellent overview of some of the articles and press releases related to the program. Note that most are in Finnish. 

The Articles and Press Releases related to this post (newest to oldest)

Other articles related to Squadron 2020

The Defence Forces, Ministry of Defence, and other authorities

8 thoughts on “An Analysis Flawed

    1. I think that the improvement in sensors and missiles allows to have a good anti-air capacity even in small warships. For example a single 8-cell Mk41 VLS would allow to store and launch 32 ESSM missiles offering a huge improvement over the Umkhonto-IR. A smaller/lighter/cheaper option could be to install 2 stand-alone ExLS launchers (with 3 cells each one) able to launch 24 CAMM missiles. This effectors coupled with a modern radar would offer a solid mid-range air-defence system.

  1. Koijari

    Tuosta puolustusvoimien kyvystä suorittaa järkeviä, suorituskyky/hinta maksimaalisia, suuria hankintoja on arvosteltu aiemminkin, useiden toimesta. F-18 vs. F-16/JAS Gripen, NH90 helikopterit, NASAMS 2, Tuuli-projekti, Katanpää-luokka, mainitakseni. Ei pieni kritiikki ja uudelleen harkinta pahitteeksi ole. Kyse ei ole merivoimien tai puolustusvoimien, vaan meidän kaikkien veronmaksajien rahoista.

    Miksei todellista yhteistyötä ole tehty, Itämeren suurien, Ruotsin ja Saksan kanssa? USA:n kokemus Itämeren olosuhteista ja vaatimuksista on hyvin marginaalinen.
    Huoltovarmuuden kannalta on melkein sama tehdäänkö laivan rungot Suomessa, Saksassa, Puolassa tai Romaniassa?
    Kärjistäen, jäässä kulku ominaisuuksiin kiinnitetään suhteeton huomio siihen nähden että ilmastonmuutos tuo todennäköisesti jäättömiä talvia tulevaisuudessa?
    Mitä hyötyä on 4 komeasta korvetista jos Suomen ilmatila menetetään tunnissa?
    Mihin tarvitaan Suomen merialueella helikopteri hangaaria? Eihän merivoimilla ole helikoptereita?

    Suomihan on jo nyt Venäjän “ohjuskuplan” sisällä (ilmatorjunta, meritorjunta, Iskander ym), Ei siihen edes tarvita Kalingradin kykyjä. Ilmavoimaa siirretään tunneissa, maa- ja merivoimaa päivissä, viikossa. Suomessa aliarvioidaan Venäjän ohjus- ja tutka teknologiaa/kykyä ja täällä “unohdetaan” kokonaan heidän satelliitit ja AWACS-koneet, joita ei edes pystytä ampumaan alas. Luulen että Venäjä on valmis uhraamaan 40 meritorjuntaohjusta 4 korvettiin.

    Hamina-luokan ohjusveneitä on hehkutettu vuosia parhaaksi mahdolliseksi Suomelle ja tyhmempikin suomalainen ymmärtää miksi. 1,2 mrd€:lla saatisiin 10-12 Haminaa. Taistelu kestävyys olisi aivan toista luokkaa. Eikös Hamina ole monitoimialus(torpedot puuttuvat)? Eikä miinalaivoja tarvitse hävittää. Ne pystyvät hoitamaan tehtävänsä vielä 50-luvullakin. Puolustusvoimilla on erikoinen himo hävittää toimintakelpoista sotakalustoa. Katsokaa esimerkiksi Ruotsin laivaston kalustoa.

    Maavoimat joutuvat tyytymään käytettyyn kalustoon lähes poikkeuksetta. Miksei merivoimille kelpaa käytetty laivakalusto? Tuo muualla esittämäni ratkaisu: 2 SAMP/T patteria maavoimille ja PAAMS asennettuna La Fayette-frekattiin, joka tulisi kaupan tekijäisinä +1,2mrd€. 2 Holland-luokan ulkovartiolaivaa 200milj€, potentiaalia vaikka mihin. 4 Haminaluokan ohjusvenettä +400milj€. Taistelualukset 1+2+8+miinalaivat. Koko Suomi voittaisi tässä kaupassa ja kaikki olisivat tyytyväisiä. Paitsi pari poliitikkoa ja kenraalia. Ahvenanmaakin olisi oikeasti hyvässä suojassa. Miksei muuten Ruotsin korvattavat sukellusveneet kiinnosta Suomea?

    1. That is a number of good and valid points, many of which have been addressed earlier on the blog. Of the examples mentioned I would argue that Tuuli is the poster-child for failed Finnish defence programs. Considering the success of the Hornet in Finnish service, I don’t see it as a failure, though it is possible that Gripen or F-16 might have played out as well. The decision to implement the air-to-ground capability only in MLU2 can be debated, but that was a political decision more than anything else. NH90 have suffered considerable delays, and I am no expert on the system, but it seems the system is now providing a nice set of capabilities to the Army, and that the compensation deals and cooperation agreements between NH Industries and Patria have worked out well. NASAMS 2 is a very competent system, and for the money allocated was probably the right decision to make (though we still would need something that packs a longer range as well). Katanpää was covered in an earlier post, and while the project has run into significant the cost is still within the planned scope and the navy is very happy with the vessels. On the whole, I would argue that the recent Finnish defence programs have an okay track record on the whole, with some being better and some being worse.

      The cooperation on the vessels have included both the US Navy and Germany, and I fully expect us to see a significant content of German and Swedish systems onboard the vessels, probably to a higher degree than we will see US-made systems. The hulls in themselves represent a quite small proportion of the cost, but having the hulls made in one location and fitted in another will incur higher demands related to project management, and quite likely a higher cost. Regarding climate change, while ice-free winters very well might be on their way within our lifespan, betting on it to happen in the Baltic Sea within the next fifteen years feels like a stretch.

      One of the reasons for a corvette as opposed to a smaller hull is that they will be able to provide air defence for themselves, thus making them able to operate also in a contested air space. This will also provide the added benefit of the Navy playing an active part in the bigger air defence picture, together with Army and the Air Force. The helicopter deck is part of the future-proofing of the helicopters, and will probably be used by Army and Border Guard helicopters for now. In the long run, an unmanned system for extending the sensor range, allowing the vessel to operate under EMCON, and giving added ASW reach might well enter service.

      The A2/AD-bubble isn’t a steel bubble that makes operations in Finland impossible. Rather it is a question of adaptation, and one which the Finnish Defence Forces as a whole is rather well-poised to face. It isn’t necessarily easy, but the old themes of dispersion and independent initiatives are key.

      The Hamina is too light for being a multimission vessel. The sensors and especially the loadouts are too small. With the current load, the vessels are potent surface-to-surface vessels with a secondary ability of self-defence against air attacks. It will be interesting to see what their MLU brings, but in any case it will still leave the limited number of SAM’s and inability to operate in ice. The mine ships are starting to show their age, and while their age isn’t as crucial as for frontline vessels, operating costs will rapidly rise with age, something which e.g. the Royal Navy and the example of the Fearless-class LPD’s showed. The comparison to the Swedish Navy is rather interesting, as the Swedes have been pointing to the Finnish Navy’s (and Defence Forces’ in general) economic use of equipment when discussing their scrapping of fully-functioning vessels and controversial decisions such as stripping the light corvettes Malmö and Stockholm of their armament to make them patrol vessels.

      The Navy has looked into getting used ships, but these are simply not available. The few classes that might be up for grabs, such as the Norwegian frigates that has been mentioned in speculations, are usually too big, and especially the draught and manpower need is an issue in Finnish conditions. The lack of mining capability and ice-going hulls have also been issues encountered. Getting the La Fayette instead of the Sqaudron 2020 would mean getting larger, less optimised, and more expensive ships than we currently are planning on, and even lesser hulls would provide even less combat resilience.

      The submarines have been covered earlier as well, the short answer is they would be nice to have, but the price tag means getting them while the Army, Navy, and to a lesser extent Air Force, are in their current states isn’t really an option.

      Edit: Hyperlinks apparently disappeared

      Submarines: https://corporalfrisk.com/2015/01/03/where-are-the-finnish-submarines/
      Kataanpää: https://corporalfrisk.com/2016/10/24/meripuolustuspaiva-2016-maritime-defense-day/

      1. Koijari

        Minun mielestäni kehityksen ja uudistusten myötä alusten lukumäärän tulisi lisääntyä eikä vähentyä. Vaikka se edellyttäisi lisää “ärsyttäviä” meriupseereita. Suurempi laivojen, ja miksei meriupseereiden, lukumäärä on tärkeä osa taistelukestävyyttä.

        Kun kirjoitan uudesta Hamina-luokasta, ehkä olisi parempi puhua Hamina2:sta. Hamina2 olisi esimerkiksi 54 metriä pitkä. Laivatykki/CIWS olisi DARDO Fast Forty. Meritorjuntaohjuksena 6 tai 4xNSM. Ilmatorjuntajärjestelmänä olisi “David`Sling Navy” 16 tai 8xStunner-ohjuksella. Torpedoina MU 90 Impact. Nämä olisivat mielestäni Fast Attack Multirole Missile Boat.

        Katanpää-luokan alukset näyttäisivät aivan toiselta jos ne olisi varustettu DARDO Fast Forty:llä, Spike NLOS ohjuksilla ja Asrad Navy Guided Missile Launcher:lla Boliden-ohjuksilla. Olisi mahtunut eikä olisi maksanut paljon.

        Eikö 2 LV2020 korvettia, 4-6 Hamina2:n kanssa, riittäisi? Nuo korvetit tarvitsisivat PAAMS:n kaltaisen ilmatorjuntajärjestelmän. Jäässä kulku ominaisuutta saataisiin 1-2 uudella Vartiolaiva Turvalla jotka aseistettaisiin ja joiden kustannuksiin saataisiin merkittävää rahoitusta “EU:n ulkorajarahastosta”. USA:N ja Norjan rannikkovartioston alukset ovat aseistettuja rauhankin aikana. Onko Merivoimien ja Merivartioston yhteistyössä ongelmia?

        Vaikka NH 90 helikoptereiden hankinta oli suuri ja kallis virhe ja monet olisivat valmiita antamaan ne ilmaiseksi pois Suomesta, olen kuitenkin optimistinen. Mielestäni 15 NH 90 pitäisi siirtää merivoimille. 8 muutettaisiin NFH versioiksi ja 7 olisi kuljetus käytössä. Maavoimille ne ovat mahdollisessa sotilaallisessa kriisissä jokseenkin turhia.

        Jos Rauma-luokan rungot ovat oikeasti huonossa kunnossa eikä niitä voi/haluta lahjoittaa es. Virolle ja ne joudutaan romuttamaan, siirretään RBS-15 ohjukset ja muu tarvittava Hämeenmaa-luokan miinalaivoihin. Meillä olisi 2 monitoimialusta lisää. Tykit Pansioihin.

        Suomi tarvitsisi mielestäni 2 maihinnousu-miinanlaskija-monitoimialusta, Lublin-luokan kaltaista. Aluksen olisi pystyttävä siirtämään 16-20 AMV:tä ja n.150 sotilasta. Lisäksi sillä olisi 150-200 miinan laskukyky. Demilitarisoidun Ahvenanmaan takia.

        Laivue 2020 herättämä ärtymys johtuu osan puolustusvoimien johdon halusta osallistua laajempiin USA-johtoisiin kansainvälisiin operaatioihin. Raha kun on vähissä sitä ei haluta kylvää maailmalle. Afganistan huonona esimerkkinä. Mielestäni Suomen on pakko nostaa puolustusbudjettia, että omatkin vakavat puutteet saadaan korjattua.

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