Zapad 2017: Artillery to Vitebsk?

An interesting train passed Orsha central train station this week.

The location is next to a walkbridge just northwest of the central station, looking west-southwest. The bridge is the major hint, but you can also make out the apothecary with its green roof, the lower market buildings in front of it, and the low trees on the other side of the track.

Screenshot 2017-08-31 at 20.43.53
The position of the cameraman on the Yandex map. Note the location of the apothecary, Magazin No.127 and Nochnoy Ekspress.

This means that the train is heading east at the time of the filming. However, the railways around Orsha has several interesting features, and nothing certain can be said about the destination. However, the likely target is Vitebsk in northeastern Belarus, where the Losvido training range has been linked to Zapad 2017.

The train holds 12 2S19 Msta-S heavy self-propelled guns. The number is interesting, as a mechanized or armoured brigade would field 18 of these modern artillery pieces. Looking at the rest of the vehicles, the most prominent are the nine different vehicles based on the MT-LBu chassis, most of which seem to be of the 1V12-family of observer vehicles, either the older 1V12-3 “Mashina-M” or the newer 1V12M “Faltset”. A single BMP-based command vehicle is also seen, likely the command vehicle of the whole artillery unit. Suspiciously absent are not only the last third of the artillery pieces, but also the large number of different trucks which accompany artillery units, only four of which are aboard the train.

In conclusion, this leads me to believe that:

  • The last six artillery pieces and most of the trucks are being transported on a second train,
  • The complete heavy artillery of an armoured or mechanised brigade is being transferred to the area of Vitebsk for Zapad.

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