The trickle of news from Sweden and Finland has continued when it comes to the firearms programs.

To begin with, the deliveries of AK 24 are up and running, with the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration (FMV) having run their verification testing – including a 30,000 round service life test – and the formal delivery of the first batch of 1,200 series-produced rifles from FMV to the Swedish Armed Forces took place in October. This was preceded by deliveries of 200 pre-production and trial rifles, which as has been reported earlier has seen usage at a number of Swedish units as part of the field testing. With significant further deliveries slated for this year, Sweden will have received a total of 7,300 short-barrelled Sako ARs before 2025 rolls in. In addition, Sweden now has exercised an option for a further 22,500 rifles – still all in the 5.56 mm 11.5” barrel AK 24 configuration. The number of guns on order is described in somewhat fuzzy terms in the press release, but my understanding is that the total on order is 15,000 in the first batch (including the 200 trial weapons) to be delivered split evenly between 2024 and the first half of 2025, followed by the 22,500 order which will see 7,500 guns delivered during the second half of 2025 and the remaining 15,000 during 2026. Interestingly, this delivery pace is a doubling of what Sweden as late as in December last year said was the goal.

AK 24 being demonstrated upon formal delivery from FMV to the Swedish Armed Forces. Source: FMV

This might sound somewhat strange in case you’ve recently seen headlines proclaiming that Sweden is buying 15,000 carbines as an “Emergency Solution” from the US, but as is often the case things aren’t quite as dramatic as they sound. It has in fact been well-known for a long time that the Swedish Armed Forces are looking at acquiring an interim weapon, and stretching at least as far back as the decision to go for the Sako rifle it has been known that an interim weapon is a very real possibility. This is something that you could read about in a number places, including on this blog back in April of 2023, and which was confirmed as the road ahead in May of this year in the official blog of the Swedish Army.

The delivery of firearms is going according to plan. At the same time, the Armed Forces are experiencing significant growth, which places high demands on readiness and availability, while at the same time the number of conscripts is rising. Against this background, there is a great need for weapons early on. Here, the Armed Forces have identified a need for interim weapons. These are intended to be used during basic training in the coming years and will give the Armed Forces more freedom of action when it comes to solving their tasks. More information will be available shortly.

So, yes, the interim weapons are something of a stop-gap, but the need is not a sudden “emergency” caused by either slow deliveries of the Sako or by any decision taken during the last year or two, but rather the outcome of not ordering a new rifle a decade or so ago (it’s not like the shape the FNC are in is some kind of unforeseen issue that one day appeared out of the blue. The Swedish Armed Forces have been discussing the question since at least 2012). afford to wait this long to begin with, or whether a new rifle should have been procured a decade ago. Much of the blame is on the politicians for not providing adequate funding for the defence force they wanted, but there are also some “interesting” tales about how this particular program was handled behind the scenes which I look forward to reading about when one day the archives are opened. But of course, this doesn’t stop politicians from trying to spin it to something it isn’t, in the process proving to be either uninformed on the “fundamentals” in the field of defence or alternatively just fraudsters trying to knowingly spin a false narrative.

The idea that H&K’s court case against Finland somehow would affect the deliveries to Sweden is equally false, as that case is solely dealing with whether the procurement by Finland without a tender is appropriate under EU-regulations, and not at all related to exports to Sweden (or any other country for that matter). H&K lost that case once already, but got permission to appeal, and we are still waiting for that one. Most likely people just mix up the Finnish case with the German one, under which H&K claimed (and won) that Haenel was guilty of patent infringement. And as mentioned, deliveries in fact take place faster than envisioned.

What then is the Colt M4A1, Sweden’s new interim weapon? The M4 started life as the first truly military (as opposed to adopted from a commercial off-the-shelf version) short member of the AR-family, and the idea was to provide supporting roles with a weapon that was more manoeuvrable and easier to handle than the full-length M16A2, but still one that packed a significantly bigger punch while being easier to shoot than a pistol (sounds familiar, right?). This lead Colt to develop a 14.5” barrel weapon with a number of minor changes, which then gradually evolved into something rather different. The weapon become a minor revolution in small arms with details such as introducing a Picatinny rail, and proving that you could in fact use a ‘short’ rifle as your standard infantry weapon. Several modifications pioneered on the weapon also eventually found their way to the long M16, further highlighting the modularity of the basic AR-platform. The M4 was quickly supplemented by and later more or less replaced by the M4A1, which differ in having a Safe-Semi-Auto trigger instead of the Safe-Semi-Burst of the M4 (that is in fact the defining feature in US nomenclature between the two). The M4A1 has in turn gone through a number of different iterations, spawning a significant number of hybrids in the process, and currently most weapons now produced sport a heavier (‘SOCOM’) barrel, ambidextrous controls, Matech flip-up iron sights as back-up, and a four-position rail handguard. It is likely this will be the Swedish configuration as well.

Another detail is that the reporting stated that the weapons are from “US storage”, though according to sources which I frankly trust more when it comes to getting the details correct on this topic these are in fact newbuilt weapons straight out of the production line. They will also reportedly sport the same Aimpoint Comp M5 (Rödpunktsikte 18B) as is generally seen in Swedish service.

A US paratrooper assigned to 173rd Airborne Brigade, loads a 10-round magazine into his FN-built M4A1 carbine during a marksmanship-training exercise within the framework of Silver Bullet 24 at Pian dell’Alpe in Usseaux, Italy, in November this year. The weapon which was supposed to be just an upgrade to supporting roles somehow ended up being the most important firearm in the Global War on Terror. Note four-position RAS-handguard, ACOG, and generally badass weathered look. Source: U.S. Army photo by Davide Dalla Massara

The M4A1 isn’t the most spectacular weapon in the world, but it is a proven platform, and despite the short length it is as accurate as the M16 it replaced out to approximately 400 m, which in any case is pushing it for the average soldier equipped with an assault rifle. To be fair, it wouldn’t have been the worst idea if Sweden would have just dumped a sack of money at the doorstep of Pentagon and bought a hundred thousand M4A1s back in 2014. In fact, it would probably have been an adequate solution to the question of new firearm. Not great, but far from the most terrible solution either. Note that despite being the ‘short’ family member the M4 in all versions is sporting a barrel that is a bit (76 mm) longer than that of the AK 24, while there in turn are yet shorter ARs in US service, most notably the M4A1 with the 10.3” CQB Upper Receiver and the related MK 18. The M4A1 is also a DI-gun as opposed to the piston-driven AK 24.

To put the number of weapons into perspective, Sweden back in the days bought approximately 10,000 short-barrelled AK 5D. Of course, it has been said from the outset that the usage of the new short weapon will be broader compared to the AK 5D, and include a number of roles who currently have to rely on a pistol as their main weapon as well as people who have a primary role other than combat and for whom a full-length weapon isn’t necessarily the best choice. The wartime force Sweden aims to field by 2035 (note!) according to the latest government proposal is set at 130,000 in total. So just based on the these two orders, Sweden has – in the very crudest way of calculating – already ordered enough AK 24s to give every third or fourth member of the wartime force their own AK 24. Add the 15,000 Colt carbines to the mix, and by the end of 2026 a total of 44,800 of the 130,000 serving (~35 %) should have either a Sako or a Colt in their hands – and that is without including the 200 pre-series guns or addressing the fact that the current force is not yet 130,000 strong. Safe to say the Swedes seem rather happy with the outcome of the trials so far.

This was also supported by a brief report by Twitter username @VerkanUnderline of the Swedish Air Force who shot the weapon at a recent TTS (‘SRA but in Swedish’) meet. He noted that the weapon is very forgiving and the aimpoint stays the same regardless of support and shooting stance, and that while the recoil unsurprisingly is rather fierce compared to a medium-length DI-gun, the speed of the impulse means that with practice it is possible to regain the target “rather quickly”. The ambidextrous control also garnered praise, and in general he was very happy with it.

Here we might have to take a quick pause to note something interesting – Sako produce both a DI- and a piston-version of their platform, and the piston is the one being bought by both the Swedish and (in all likelihood) the Finnish armed forces. At the same time, the Finnish National Defence Training Association MPK is getting the semi-auto DI-version ARG S 40, and perhaps more interesting the DI-version is the one being offered by Sako for the British Project Grayburn – the programme to replace the SA80 with an order for approximately 170,000 new rifles.

So why are we getting the pistons with their extra weight and higher recoil? There are some out there who will swear by the piston once snow and cold weather comes into the equation, something that it will to a significantly higher degree for the Swedish and Finnish forces compared to the UK (the same is probably the reason behind the forward assist, which some people are simply allergic to). But, it has to be said that to some extent it might simply be that people want to play it safe. Yes, DI is a tried and tested system, but a piston is still as fool-proof a solution as they come in firearms, and with both most of our neighbours getting new piston-guns and with Finland and Sweden currently relying on piston-guns (let’s leave the roller-delayed blowback mechanism of the G3/AK 4 out of this, okay?) it might simply have been the default choice.

But back to Sweden. The Hemvärnet (Home Guard) has status as its own service branch alongside the Army, Air Force, and Navy, and currently sports approximately 22,000 personnel, aiming to add another four thousand to reach 26,000 serving by 2030. It is an interesting case study when it comes to the question of weapons as their preconditions differ compared to the Army (and the Air Force and the Navy), and they have been rather open and vocal about these, with Joachim Peru as the weapons officer of the force having taken upon himself to open up the reasoning behind the choices being made – most recently as part of a panel discussion which was streamed to YouTube.

In short, regardless of what the Army settles for, Hemvärnet will focus on 5.56 NATO, and there are a number of reasons for this.

A key detail is that the logistics tail of the force is rather small due to the nature of their tasks. Once the truck rolls out, you have whatever equipment you were able to load it with, and you are expected to make do with it for an extended period of time. And in that scenario, the number of 5.56 rounds you can cram into a given space compared to the bulkier 7.62 ones becomes a factor of serious consideration. The cost of the rounds also come into play, both for training as well as for how many you can afford to buy and put into storage. The cost might only be approximately 1 SEK (~90 cents) more for a 7.62 NATO round as Peru explained, but giving just three mags of thirty rounds to all 26,000 soldiers will already cost you well over two million Euros more with 7.62 NATO compared to 5.56 NATO – and then we get back to the fact that the rounds are heavier and the magazines longer.

It doesn’t stop there. Such seemingly simple things as how many firing units you can fit in a given exercise area simultaneously also comes into play. When looking at the larger area needed by a unit shooting 7.62 mm compared to one equipped with 5.56 NATO, this directly translates into how efficient the parent unit can be with the precious training time allocated to it, a rather unsexy question but one that have consequences in the real world where budgets and training days are limited. In general, like all reservist-based units, the Hemvärnet will spend less time than ideal on the firing ranges, and as such a premium is placed on a calibre and weapon that is easy to master.

But does any of that even matter, considering that the vast majority of casualties in a war is caused by shrapnel, indirect fire, mines, and crew-served weapons? The Swedes have a very clear idea about how and when being an able rifleman matters – or at least Peru does – and that is when you need to win ‘the duel’. When a soldier suddenly comes face to face with an enemy, and need to react fast because otherwise the enemy will shoot first, that’s when the stakes are the highest and we want our people to achieve effect in the target before the enemy does. That is also a situation when things like quick follow-up shots, manageable recoil, and in general being able to create holes where you want them more as a function of instinct rather than as a reasoned process comes into play. And this is also where 5.56 mm shines.

In addition, Swedish Army chief Major General Jonny Lindfors visited Max Villman’s podcast Max Tänt, and as the final question of the interview got to answer the “7.62 or 5.56?” one. While leaving the answer a bit open-ended, and not stating directly that the “better one” is the one to be the future standard armament of the Swedish Armed Force, he did note that 5.56 NATO is lighter to carry, is the current NATO-standard, and does the job rather well in most cases. Safe to say it seems the winds are turning compared to when we first got to hear any details of the Swedish small-arms program, and 5.56 NATO is (again) looking like the Swedish cartridge of the future.

Which is also why another interview happening this autumn is looking even more, eh… fascinating. Now recently retired, then FDF Deputy Chief of Staff, Logistics and Armaments, Lieutenant General Mikko Heiskanen visited Mighty Finland to discuss a lot of different things (if you understand Finnish, the whole interview is well worth your time), one of which was the upcoming Finnish rifle procurement. The discussion was an interesting one – and included the terrific one-liner regarding the calibre choice that:

There are a many different opinions on this, of which some are based on facts, and others are more in the realm of opinions.

The calibre choice(s) and barrel length(s) are still open, and Heiskanen expect a decision in either 2025 or 2026. He did, however, open up a bit on the state of the situation, noting that:

  • 7.62×39 mm will stay in service for a long time (“decades”), because we have a lot of Rk 62/95TP and won’t be in a hurry to replace them (in particular for secondary roles, as we have recently modernised them),
  • The new assault rifles (note that he isn’t discussing dedicated DMRs in the video, a need covered by the 7.62 KIV 23) will likely by a combination of 7.62 NATO and 5.56 NATO, with “purpose and tests” being the deciding factor, with some units getting one and some the other. Urban units (“city jaegers”, in Finnish) were mentioned as an example of units that likely would benefit highly from getting a short 5.56 mm rifle and being able to carry vastly more rounds,
  • 6.8×51 mm is “unlikely”, due to costs and factors of war economy,
  • Perhaps a third – and he stressed that this was a very rough estimate – of the forces will get the Sako ARs as part of the first wave.

So it does indeed look like we will get a re-run of the Swedish debate here in Finland, with the added factor of any kind of AR in any calibre with a half-decent optic being vastly superior to an AK. Bring out the popcorns.